SENSEX OR SENSE ACHES
AFTER 10TH OF MAY WE ARE SUFFERING FROM A NUMERICFOBIA CAUSED BY THE BIGGEST CORRECTION OF INDIAN STOCK MARKET.LOTS OF IFS,BUTS,WHATS ARE GOING ON IN OUR MIND. LETS DISCUSS SOME PROBABLITIES:-
NORMALLY ANY BULL MARKET FOLLOWS 4 TECHNICAL RULES I.E TREND,RALLY,ELLIOT WAVE THEORY,2:3:5:LAW.TRENDLINE IS APPLICABLE ONLY IN CASE OF SHORT OR MEDIUM TERM.
VIEW-1:-IF THE RALLY THAT STARTED FORM 2003 IS FOLLOWING EWT BUT NOT THE 2:3:5LAW THEN ACCORDING TO EWT WAVE-1- 2828-3417 IS DONE,WAVE-2-3417-2904 IS DONE,WAVE-3-2904-6250 IS DONE,WAVE-4-6250-4227 IS DONE,WAVE-5-4227-12671 IS DONE TOO.NOW COMES CORRECTION.HERE IS ALSO 2 OPINIONS.(A)A CORRECTION OOF 40% FROM 12671-8799 IS OVER & A RALLY LARGER THAN THE PREVIOUS ONE HAS ALREADY STARTED.(5)IF THE CORRECTION IS FORMING AN A-B-C PATTERN THEN ACCORDING TO EWT WAVE-A-12671-8799 IS OVER.WAVE-B CAN BE 31.8%,38.2%,50%,61.8%,75%,100% RETRACEMENT OF WAVE-A OR 1.15,1.25 TIMES OF WAVE-A.THE 75% RETRACEMENT LEVEL I.E 11703 IS WELL CROSSED.NOW WE HAVE 100% I.E 12671 OR 1.15 TIMES I.E 13252 OR 1.25 TIMES I.E 13639 TO REACH. FROM ANY OF THESE LEVELS WAVE-C WILL START. IN THAT CASE THE TARGET WILL BE 8799.
VIEW-2:-IF THE RALLY IS FOLLOWING BOTH THE EWT & 2:3:5 LAW THEN WAVE-1-2904-6250 IS DONE,WAVE-2-6250-4227 IS DONE,WAVE-3-4227-12671 IS DONE,WAVE-4-12671-8799 IS ALSO DONE & THE WAVE-5-8799-13840 IS ON THE WAY.AFTER REACHING 13840 THE ORIGINAL CORRECTION WILL START&WE WILL SEE EVEN MORE BIGGER CORRECTION THAN THE LAST ONE.
VIEW-3:-IF THE RALLY IS FOLLOWING NEITHER EWT NOR 2:3:5 LAW THENIT IS TOTALLY BASED ON FINANCIAL RESULTS.THEN WE CAN SAY THAT EVERY RALLY SHOULD START AT 14 MARKET P/E & END AT 22. THE CURRENT MARKET P/E STANDS AT 20.83. SENSEX WILL REACH 22 P/E BY REACHING 13013.SO THAT IS THE TARGET FOR THE SEPTEMBER QUARTER.
NORMALLY ANY BULL MARKET FOLLOWS 4 TECHNICAL RULES I.E TREND,RALLY,ELLIOT WAVE THEORY,2:3:5:LAW.TRENDLINE IS APPLICABLE ONLY IN CASE OF SHORT OR MEDIUM TERM.
VIEW-1:-IF THE RALLY THAT STARTED FORM 2003 IS FOLLOWING EWT BUT NOT THE 2:3:5LAW THEN ACCORDING TO EWT WAVE-1- 2828-3417 IS DONE,WAVE-2-3417-2904 IS DONE,WAVE-3-2904-6250 IS DONE,WAVE-4-6250-4227 IS DONE,WAVE-5-4227-12671 IS DONE TOO.NOW COMES CORRECTION.HERE IS ALSO 2 OPINIONS.(A)A CORRECTION OOF 40% FROM 12671-8799 IS OVER & A RALLY LARGER THAN THE PREVIOUS ONE HAS ALREADY STARTED.(5)IF THE CORRECTION IS FORMING AN A-B-C PATTERN THEN ACCORDING TO EWT WAVE-A-12671-8799 IS OVER.WAVE-B CAN BE 31.8%,38.2%,50%,61.8%,75%,100% RETRACEMENT OF WAVE-A OR 1.15,1.25 TIMES OF WAVE-A.THE 75% RETRACEMENT LEVEL I.E 11703 IS WELL CROSSED.NOW WE HAVE 100% I.E 12671 OR 1.15 TIMES I.E 13252 OR 1.25 TIMES I.E 13639 TO REACH. FROM ANY OF THESE LEVELS WAVE-C WILL START. IN THAT CASE THE TARGET WILL BE 8799.
VIEW-2:-IF THE RALLY IS FOLLOWING BOTH THE EWT & 2:3:5 LAW THEN WAVE-1-2904-6250 IS DONE,WAVE-2-6250-4227 IS DONE,WAVE-3-4227-12671 IS DONE,WAVE-4-12671-8799 IS ALSO DONE & THE WAVE-5-8799-13840 IS ON THE WAY.AFTER REACHING 13840 THE ORIGINAL CORRECTION WILL START&WE WILL SEE EVEN MORE BIGGER CORRECTION THAN THE LAST ONE.
VIEW-3:-IF THE RALLY IS FOLLOWING NEITHER EWT NOR 2:3:5 LAW THENIT IS TOTALLY BASED ON FINANCIAL RESULTS.THEN WE CAN SAY THAT EVERY RALLY SHOULD START AT 14 MARKET P/E & END AT 22. THE CURRENT MARKET P/E STANDS AT 20.83. SENSEX WILL REACH 22 P/E BY REACHING 13013.SO THAT IS THE TARGET FOR THE SEPTEMBER QUARTER.
posted by kalpana at 5:05 AM
1 Comments:
great analysis
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